King James for a season or C-Webb for 15?

By Rob

ORIGINALLY POSTED FEBRUARY 16, 2009

In my most recent post, I embedded a video: NBA TV's Top 10 Plays of Chris Webber's Career

Overall it was OK. I really liked #3 and I LOVED #2, but the rest was surprisingly underwhelming. It got me thinking about some of the other Top 10's I've seen on NBA TV and, well... I think Lebron James' Top 10 Plays of 2007 is cooler than C-Webb's Career Top 10 Plays.

Now let me establish a couple things:
1). I don't believe that NBA TV actually showed the top 10 plays of C-Webb's career. A few of the bottom 5 were on par with a half court buzzer beater to end the first half of a regular season game (a little wordy but I think you get it) and I can't fathom them being among the best plays of his career. C-Webb played in 831 games over 15 seasons.. c'mon, NBA TV! Dig a little deeper into the archives.
2). It's likely that NBA TV has compiled a more impressive single-season Top 10 for an individual player than the one for Lebron in 2007.

That being said, have a look at Lebron's '07 highlight reel:



LBJ's dunk in the Eastern Conference finals is nasty... Click here to check out C-Webb's highlight reel.

Is C-Webb Hall of Fame bound?

By Rob

ORIGINALLY POSTED FEBRUARY 15, 2009

NOTE: All statistics were recovered using basketball-reference.com. Statistics are accurate as of Feb. 16, 2009. Certain statistical categories were not kept track of until later into the game's history.

Is Chris Webber a Hall of Famer? It's hard to say. Webber was drafted first overall in the 1993 NBA draft, voted the 93-94 Rookie of the Year, and made the All-Rookie first team. In 14 seasons that would follow (13 seasons if you choose not to count the 9 games he played in 07-08 season before calling it quits), Webber would make 5 All-NBA teams and play in 5 All-Star Games.



I can't think of a player who presents a HOF case as interesting as C-Webbs' -- it's teetering on the edge.

The Pros:
He averaged 20-10 (20.7 points, 9.8 rebounds to be exact) over his career -- a feat achieved by few (see below). Career averages of 1+ blocks and 1+ steals per game aren't as unheard of (C-Webb averaged 1.4 in both categories) but to do so in addition to 20-10? That's incredibly rare. (see slightly further below)

The Cons:
Before you begin to talk about if/how he performed in the clutch or what his post-season play was like (he's mssing some jewelry), there's another, more prevailing hurdle to be faced. I think Webber personifies the NBA superstar transitioning from the 90s to the 2000s. Not because he played roughly the first half of his career in the 90s and the latter half in the new millenium (although that is a cute touch) but because he was a very unique kind of supertstar -- at least statisically speaking. He wasn't quite a traditional 90s PF (like Malone, Sir Charles, David Robinson, etc.) nor was he the jack of all trade's SF/PF/C we're accustomed to today (KG, Shawn Marion, Lebron, etc.). He was in an "in-betweener".

He averaged 20-10 but he was never an overwhelming force on the boards or a big-time shot blocker (although his game appeared to be headed in that direction in the strike-shortened 98-99 season). He averaged 4 assists, 1 steal and 1 block per game but he shot just 65% from the foul line. He's not an easy guy to label, and I think that hurts him more than almost anything else.

Well, I'll leave the rest to you. I don't want to look too closely at his post-season play, or how he performed in the clutch, because I don't think that's what people associate C-Webb with. Sacramento's championship aspirations were dashed more than once by some unbelievable L.A. teams (most notably when the Kings fell to LA in Game 7 of the 2002 Western Conference finals) but I don't know if the voters think about the [very] GOOD teams you were on or the times you ALMOST made it... He wasn't a NBA champion and he's better remembered for calling a time out at the end of the NCAA championship game than for any positive clutch moments as a pro. His best bet for enshrinement are his numbers.

Chris Webber's career stat line:

ALL-TIME RANKS, AVERAGES: 20.7 PPG (45th all-time), 47.9 FG% (235th), 64.9 FT%, 9.8 REB (55th), 4.2 AST (140th; great for a big man), 2.8 TOV, 1.4 BLK (49th), 1.4 STL (42nd)

ALL-TIME RANKS, TOTALS: 76th for POINTS, 63rd for REBOUNDS, 48th for BLOCKS, 75th for STEALS

And just how exclusive is the 20-10 club?...

PLAYER NAME - POINTS PER GAME, REBOUNDS PER GAME, FT%
Sorted by Points Per Game

1. Wilt Chamberlain* - 30.07, 22.89, 51.1%
2. Elgin Baylor* - 27.36, 13.55, 78%
3. Bob Pettit* - 26.36, 16.22, 76.1%
4. Karl Malone - 25.02, 10.14, 74.2%
5. Shaquille O’Neal - 24.91, 11.35, 52.7%
6. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar* - 24.61, 11.18, 72.1%
7. Larry Bird* - 24.29, 10.00, 88.6%
8. George Mikan* - 23.13, 13.4, 78.2%
9. Dan Issel* ~ 22.56, 9.1, 79.3%
10. Charles Barkley* - 22.14, 11.69, 73.5%
11. Bob McAdoo* ~ 22.05, 9.45, 75.4%
12. Hakeem Olajuwon* - 21.77, 11.10, 71.2%
13. Tim Duncan - 21.55, 11.75, 68.5%
14. Bill Cunningham* - 21.18, 10.36, 79.6%
15. David Robinson - 21.06, 10.64, 73.6%
16. Patrick Ewing* ~ 20.98, 9.81, 74%
17. Elvin Hayes* - 20.96, 12.49, 67%
18. CHRIS WEBBER ~ 20.68, 9.78, 64.9%
19. Moses Malone* - 20.68, 12.26, 76%
20. Spencer Haywood – 20.27, 10.28, 79.6%
21. Kevin Garnett - 20.22, 11.11, 78.2%
22. George McGinnis – 20.20, 10.97, 66.4%
23. Walt Bellamy* - 20.08, 13.65, 63.2%
24. Bob Lanier* - 20.07, 10.11, 76.7%
25. Elton Brand ~ 19.99, 10.14, 73.6%

* - indicates NBA Hall of Famer
~ - indicates that player falls slightly short of 20 points per game and/or 10 rebounds per game

The '20-10 Club' put into perspective:

77 players have career averages of at least 9.00 rebounds per game.
46 players have career averages of at least 10.00 rebounds per game.

61 players have career averages of at least 19.75 points per game.
58 players have career averages of at least 20.00 points per game.

Now to narrow it down a little further...

As I said before, C-Webb averaged 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks per game over the course of his career. Of the other '20-10' club members, only the following averaged at least 1.37 steals per game: George McGinnis, Hakeem Olajuwon, Larry Bird, Charles Barkley, Karl Malone, David Robinson, Kevin Garnett. And of those 7, only Hakeem Olajuwon, David Robinson and Kevin Garnett have career averages of 1 or more blocks per game.

58 players have career averages of at least 1.3 blocks per game.
55 players have career averages of at least 1.25 steals per game.

C-Webb also averaged 4.24 assists per game. The only '20-10' members with averages of 4 or more assists per game are: Billy Cunningham (4.29), Kevin Garnett (4.31), Elgin Baylor (4.31), and Wilt Chamberlain (4.4).

154 players have career averages of at least 4.0 assists per game.

Lane Kiffin's Remarkable Rise to the Top

By Rob

ORIGINALLY POSTED JANUARY 21, 2009

2007-2008 NBA Rookie of the Year Kevin Durant won every award imaginable as a freshman at Texas, signed a Nike deal in 2007, has a salary of $4,484,040 for the 2008-2009 season and, at 20 years old, is something like 4-6 months younger than me. As for myself... I know someone who wears Nikes; I know that 4,484,040 is a number; and I like to watch basketball when I'm not doing homework or at my part-time job.

I now know what it's like to watch someone who's younger than you make a fortune and re-write the record books. But this is expected of athletes. It's inevitable. The next batch of great athletes are breaching 'greatness' far sooner than the 'greatest' did. Coaching, however, is fairly static. Yes, there are more coaching changes now than there were in the distant past, but the long and somewhat tedious climb up the coaching ladder has been an established expectation for some time. As the title of this post indicates, there is one extraordinary exception whose climb is of endless fascination to me... Lane Kiffin.

You wouldn't be too far off if you thought Kiffin made a name for himself overnight. It was only 10 years after graduating from college that he became the head coach of a NFL franchise.

A Miniature Timeline:

1975: (May 9) Kiffin is born (approx. 0 years old)
1994: graduates from high school in Minnesota (19 years old)
1994: enrolls in Fresno State University where he plays basketball, baseball and backup QB for the Fresno State Bulldogs (19 years old)
1997: gives up playing football his senior season; becomes a Student Assistant Coach at Fresno State (22 years old)
1998: graduates from Fresno State (23 years old)
1999: works as a Graduate Assistant at Colorado State University for one year; works with the offensive line
2000: works with the Jacksonville Jaguars as a Quality Control Assistant for one year
2001: hired as a Tight Ends Coach at University of Southern California (USC)
2002: becomes the Wide Receivers Coach at USC
2004: becomes Passing Game Coordinator; retains Wide Receivers Coach position at USC
2005: is promoted to Offensive Coordinator at USC and becomes Recruiting Coordinator; retains position as Wide Receivers Coach
2007: (January 23) hired as the Head Coach of the Oakland Raiders; the youngest Head Coach in NFL history. (age 31)
2008: (September 30) Lane Kiffin is fired as Raiders' Head Coach.
2008: named Head Coach of the Tennessee Volunteers football program (age 33)

He surpassed many of his former bosses in his quick climb up the coaching ladder. For instance, when he was a Student Assistant Coach at Fresno State, his position coach was Jeff Tedford, current Head Coach at the University of California.

From '93 to '97, Tedford was the Offensive Coordinator at Fresno State where he coached Kiffin. Then from 1998 to 2001, Tedford helped build Oregon's football program as its Offensive Coordinator. Meanwhile Kiffin was in the fast lane: he worked with a pro team and was hired by Pete Carroll to work as a Positions Coach with the best college football program in the country.
Since 2002, Tedford's been the Head Coach at Cal, and has won two Pac-10 Coach of the Year awards, so I don't mean to undermine his success. However, Tedford was in his early-40s when he won his first Coach of the Year award, and that's entirely my point.

At age 33, Kiffin will be the youngest Head Coach in Division-1 football. I'm not saying he'll be a great college coach (although when he was the Recruiting Coordinator at USC the team had the #1 recruitment class all 3 years) but I think he's capable of turning around an already talented Tennessee team (ranked 18th in preseason polls last year) after a shocking 5-7 finish last season. He's positioned to haul in a SEC Coach of the Year award in the near future, and he will do it in his 30s.

Resume Summary:
1997–1998 Fresno State (Positions)
1999 Colorado State (Positions)
2000 Jacksonville Jaguars (Asst)
2001–2006 USC (Positions/OC)
2007–2008 Oakland Raiders (Head Coach)
2009–Present Tennessee (Head Coach)

Greg Oden (Part 2)

By Rob

ORIGINALLY POSTED JANUARY 7, 2009

NOTE: Statistics are valid as of December 30, 2008

Greg Oden has played in 26 of Portland’s 32 games. He’s started in 19 of those 26. What does he have to show for it? (Other than a 16-10 record, of course)

His season averages aren’t overly impressive (even for a rookie):
8.1 PPG, 53.2% FG (2.9-5.5), 7.4 REB (2.8 OFF; 4.7 DEF), 64.8% FT (2.3-3.5), 0.7 AST, 1.5 TO, 0.4 STL, 1.3 BLK, 3.8 PF

As it stands, New Jersey Nets' center Brook Lopez has been the best of all first-year big men. He's played in all of New Jersey's games and, with the exception of FG% (Lopez is shooting a more modest 45.9%) and TO (Lopez is averaging 1.7 TO per game), has Oden beat in every statistical category.

But when Oden plays 20 or more minutes, his average numbers are as good as any other rookie big man:

11 PTS, 58 FG%, 9.53 REB, 68.9 FT%, .86 AST, 1.8 TO, .3 STL, 1.46 BLK, 3.73 PF

He shoots 58% from the field and 69% from the free throw line. He averages 9.5 rebounds and 11 points per game. He turns over the ball 1.8 times and blocks 1.46 shots... Plus the Trail Blazers at 9-6 in such games.

If you removed his 21-minute performance in Portland’s December 22nd loss from the equation (a game in which Oden had only 3 rebounds) then he’d have averaged 10 rebounds per game over 14 games with 20 or more minutes.

There aren’t many guys who can shoot nearly 60% from the field and nearly 70% from the free throw line. There aren’t many guys who can average 1.5+ blocks per game while turning over the ball less than 2 times per game, either. Toss in a double-double and you’ve got a special kind of player…

How special?

26 players finished the 2007-2008 season averaging 8.0 or more rebounds per game. (8+ rebounds is a pretty common expectation for a big man, although I admit I chose it somewhat arbitrarily.)
Notable players, capable of 8+ rebounds, who otherwise would have made the list: Lebron James (7.9) and LaMarcus Aldridge (7.6). Seven more players averaged between 7.2 and 7.7 rebpg. Chris Kaman (56 games – 12.7 rebounds per), Andrew Bynum (35 games - 10.2 rebounds per) and Elton Brand (8 games – 8.0 rebounds per) were ineligible.

20 [players] of those 26 shot 60+% from the free throw line.
The 6 players eliminated: Ben Wallace (42.6%), Jeff Foster (59.3%), Andrew Bogut (58.7%), Emeka Okafor (57.0%), Tyson Chandler (59.3%), Dwight Howard (59.0%)

17 [players] of those 20 also averaged 10.0+ points per game.
Players eliminated: Joel Przybilla (4.8), Nick Collison (9.8), Marcus Camby (9.1)

10 [players] of the remaining 17 averaged 1.0+ blocks per game.
Players eliminated: Antonio McDyess (.7), Dirk Nowitzki (.9), David Lee (.4), Al Horford (.9), Antawn Jamison (.4), Carlos Boozer (.5), Lamar Odom (.9)

That’s 10 players who averaged 10+ points, 8+ rebounds, and 1+ block per game, while shooting 60+% from the FT line last season. To me, those minimums represent the basic expectations of a well-rounded center in the NBA.

Who were the 10?
1. Josh Smith
2. David West
3. Amar'e Stoudamire
4. Kevin Garnett
5. Zydrunas Ilgauskas
6. Brad Miller
7. Andris Biedrins
8. Samuel Dalembert
9. Al Jefferson
10. Tim Duncan

Even if you’re kind about the guidelines I’ve set in place, you’d have 21 players*** on that list.

*** Those on the fringe:
Lebron James was .1 rebound off. Dirk Nowitzki, Al Horford, and Lamar Odom were .1 blocks shy, while Antonio McDyess was off by .3 blocks. Marcus Camby was .9 points per game away.
Nick Collison averaged 9.8 ppg and .8 blocks. Dwight Howard shot 59.0% from the FT line; Tyson Chandler shot 59.3%, Emeka Okafor shot 57.0%, Andrew Bogut shot 58.7%.

So what? Well, there's a lot of non-believers coming out recently, and what I'm trying to do is put 20-year-old Greg Oden in context; explain through use of statistics why he's hyped up the way he is and why not to jump off the bandwagon just yet.

In a recent article by Johnny Ludden for Yahoo! Sports, Ludden sums up my point well:

...[Oden is] also a little more than two weeks shy of his 21st birthday and his NBA career has spanned all of 28 games. He spent one year in college then sat out all of his first season with the Blazers after undergoing microfracture surgery on his right knee.

Even healthy, few big men have dominated with so little experience. The same Dwight Howard who now terrorizes the league is the same Dwight Howard who averaged 12 points, 10 rebounds and 1.7 blocks in nearly 33 minutes per game as a rookie. Oden’s averages this season: 8.0 points, 7.2 rebounds and 1.2 blocks in 23 minutes per game.

Patience everyone. The time of Oden may be right around the corner.

Greg Oden's 20+ Minute Game Log:
Dec 30 (W) 35:35 – 5/9 FG, 3/5 FT, 4-7=11 REB, 3 AST, 2 TO, 0 STL, 0 BLK, 3 PF, 13 PTS
Dec 27 (W) 28:21 – 5/7 FG, 6/6 FT, 7-3=10 REB, 0 AST, 1 TO, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 3 PF, 16 PTS
Dec 25 (L) 25:25 – 2/6 FG, 0/3 FT, 2-3=5 REB, 1 AST, 3 TO, 1 STL, 0 BLK, 4 PF, 4 PTS
Dec 22 (L) 21:36 – 4/5 FG, 2/2 FT, 2-1=3 REB, 2 AST, 0 TO, 0 STL, 2 BLK, 6 PF, 10 PTS
Dec 16 (W) 21:11 – 3/6 FG, 2/2 FT, 3-7=10 REB, 0 AST, 0 TO, 0 STL, 0 BLK, 4 PF, 8 PTS
Dec 12 (L) 42:03 – 6/10 FG, 3/4 FT, 6-9=15 REB, 0 AST, 2 TO, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 2 PF, 15 PTS
Dec 11 (L) 31:53 – 4/6 FG, 0/3 FT, 4-5=9 REB, 0 AST, 3 TO, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 3 PF, 8 PTS
Dec 7 (W) 27:35 – 3/10 FG, 4/6 FT, 5-5=10 REB, 0 AST, 2 TO, 0 STL, 2 BLK, 4 PF, 10 PTS
Dec 3 (W) 31:06 – 4/6 FG, 5/6 FT, 3-7=10 REB, 0 AST, 3 TO, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 2 PF, 13 PTS
Nov 30 (W) 30:49 – 3/4 FG, 5/6 FT, 2-11=13 REB, 1 AST, 2 TO, 1 STL, 3 BLK, 5 PF, 11 PTS
Nov 28 (W) 23:53 – 0/2 FG, 1/4 FT, 3-5=8 REB, 3 AST, 1 TO, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 2 PF, 1 PTS
Nov 26 (W) 25:38 – 4/6 FG, 2/2 FT, 4-6=10 REB, 0 AST, 1 TO, 0 STL, 1 BLK, 4 PF, 10 PTS
Nov 18 (L) 29:40 – 8/12 FG, 6/8 FT, 4-6=10 REB, 2 AST, 5 TO, 1 STL, 2 BLK, 5 PF, 22 PTS
Nov 15 (W) 23:53 – 4/8 FG, 5/8 FT, 2-6=8 REB, 1 AST, 2 TO, 2 STL, 3 BLK, 5 PF, 13 PTS
Nov 14 (L) 24:10 – 3/3 FG, 5/6 FT, 1-10=11 REB, 0 AST, 0 TO, 0 STL, 4 BLK, 4 PF, 11 PTS

Rookie Celtics Look Stellar in D-League Debut

By Rob

ORIGINALLY POSTED NOVEMBER 30, 2008

No, this isn't a sports blog. I haven't always posted about sports and it's not my intention to keep strictly to sports. But with the recent performances by rookies Bill Walker (SF) and J.R. Giddens (SG)... I just had to spread the good word.

On Friday, Bill Walker (47th overall pick in the 2008 draft; traded from the Wizards to the Celtics for cash) and J.R. Giddens (Celtics 1st round draft pick in 2008; 30th pick overall) made their debut for the Utah Flash; a Celtics D-League affiliate.

It's hard to say who outperformed who... 6'5'' shooting guard J.R. Giddens hit the game-winning shot in overtime, and 6'6'' small forward Bill Walker, who played alongside Michael Beasley at Kansas State, had 5 steals and went 5-for-9 from beyond the arc.

Bill Walker (SF) played 41:03 minutes and, despite foul trouble (4 PF), had a tremendous stat line:
23 PTS (9-19 FGM-A; 5-9 3PM-A; 0-0 FTM-A), 8 REB (1 OFF, 7 DEF), 4 AST, 3 TO, 5 STL, and 0 BLK.

J. Giddens (SG) played 45:21 minutes and also put up solid numbers:
19 PTS (8-18 FGM-A; 1-4 3PM-A; 2-5 FTM-A), 12 REB (4 OFF, 8 DEF), 1 AST, 4 TO, 1 STL, 2 BLK, and 2 PF.

I know a lot of people consider the D-League a joke, and I wouldn't completely disagree. But after producing assist wiz Ramon Sessions, I think they've made a huge leap in proving to be a viable source of talent. If the D-League turns out to be the equivalent to the MLB's farm system, then NBA executives will look like geniuses. If not, what do they have to lose? I love the idea of bringing the NBA -- in some form -- to rural areas that would otherwise be uninterested in professional basketball.

The point I was trying to get at is this: don't discount Walker and Giddens, who could act as quality role players for an NBA team in the near future. And if you're one of the many who are quick to dismiss the legitimacy of the D-Leaguers... give it some more time.

Here's something to keep you entertainment while you wait:

An introduction to Bill Walker (interview footage mixed in with great in-game footage)



Now that you've been acquainted, here's Bill Walker's nasty slam dunk in an NBA pre-season game against the 76ers. I thought Theo Ratliff was a shot blocker... If anyone knows where I can buy the poster, please let me know using the comment section.



You may want to click on the videos so you watch them on YouTube in "high quality"

Boston Celtics: Playing Defense Like They Never Beat L.A.

By Rob

ORIGINALLY POSTED NOVEMBER 30, 2008


Opposing Team Stats are a solid indicator of how strong a team is performing defensively. The Boston Celtics were the best defense in the NBA last year. Anyone who considers themself to be a fan of the NBA knows this, because it was one of the best defensive seasons in NBA history.


How are the Celtics faring defensively this year? Have they lost a step? At least from a statistical standpoint, it'd be difficult to argue otherwise.

Opposing Team FG%
1. BOSTON CELTICS - 40.8%
2. Cleveland Cavaliers - 42.1%
3. Dallas Mavericks - 42.1%
4. Houston Rockets - 42.8%
5. Los Angeles Lakers 42.9%
6. Orlando Magic 42.9%

2007-2008 Season: Opposing Team FG%
1. BOSTON CELTICS - 41.9%
2. Houston Rockets - 43.3%
3. Detroit Pistons - 43.7%
4. Dallas Mavericks - 44.3%
5. San Antonio Spurs - 44.4%

Opposing Team 3PT%
1. Dallas Mavericks - 29.0%
2. Houston Rockets - 30.2%
3. Orlando Magic - 30.5%
4. Milwaukee Bucks - 30.8%
5. Denver Nuggets - 32.0%
6. Los Angeles Lakers - 32.0%
....BOSTON CELTICS rank 16th (35.6%)

2007-2008 Season: Opposing Team 3PT%
1. BOSTON CELTICS - 31.6%
2. Detroit Pistons - 33.2%
3. San Antonio - 34.2%

• If the Celtics finished the 2007-2008 season with 35.6% opposing team 3PT%, they would have tied for 8th best in the NBA. Not too shabby.

Opposing Team Rebounds (Offensive/Defensive; Total)
1. Portland Trail Blazers - 9.3/27.1; 36.4
2. Cleveland Cavaliers - 11.2/26.1; 37.4
3. Utah Jazz - 11.2/26.4; 37.6
4. New Orleans Hornets - 9.3/28.7; 38.0
5. Milwaukee Bucks - 9.3/30.2; 39.5
6. Phoenix Suns - 11.9/27.7; 39.7
7. BOSTON CELTICS - 10.7/29.2; 39.9

2007-2008 Season: Opposing Team Rebounds
1. Utah Jazz - 10.3/27.5 - 37.8
2. BOSTON CELTICS - 11.0/27.9 - 38.9
3. Detroit Pistons - 10.6/28.6 - 39.1

Opposing Team Turnovers
1. Los Angeles Lakers - 16.6
2. Miami Heat - 16.5
3. BOSTON CELTICS - 15.6
4. Utah Jazz - 15.6
5. Denver Nuggets - 15.6

2007-2008 Season: Opposing Team Turnovers
1. Golden State Warriors - 16.2
2. Denver Nuggets - 15.6
3. Utah Jazz - 15.4
4. BOSTON CELTICS - 15.3
5. Indiana Pacers - 15.0

Opposing Team Points Per Game
1. BOSTON CELTICS - 90.1
2. Houston Rockets - 90.2
3. Charlotte Bobcats - 92.4
4. Cleveland Cavaliers - 92.7
5. San Antonio Spurs - 93.0
6. New Orleans Hornets - 93.0

2007-2008 Season: Opposing Team Points Per Game
1. Detroit Pistons - 90.1
2. BOSTON CELTICS - 90.3
3. San Antonio Spurs - 90.6
4. Houston Rockets - 92.0
5. New Orleans Hornets - 95.6
6. Dallas Mavericks - 95.9

My NBA Power Rankings

By Rob

ORIGINALLY POSTED NOVEMBER 24, 2008

Last Updated: November 24, 2008

I don’t want to put too much weight on how teams have played the first 12 or so games of the season, so know I’m not taking the statistics I cite too seriously. Power Rankings generally lack consistency. As I’ll say again, Power Rankings aren’t about the W-L column. Teams lose games by 5 or less points, and that L isn’t the same as one suffered in a 20-point blowout.

TOP TIER

1. Boston Celtics
2. Los Angeles Lakers
3. Cleveland Cavaliers

I feel almost as uncomfortable putting the Cavs in my Top 3 as I do leaving San Antonio out of my Top 10. The NBA is, from top-to-bottom, the strongest it has been in years, making the #3 spot a really tough call; especially following two no-brainers like the Celtics and Lakers. But after an impressive 8-game win streak, I'm feeling a little bit more confident about my decision. Let's get one thing straight: I don’t think they could beat the Celtics in a 7-game series. I do, however, think there’s a chance of Cleveland landing the #2 seed in the East, and that they are good enough to secure the 50+ wins necessary to do so.

4. Phoenix Suns

Eight Suns' players are averaging 20+ minutes per game; all of whom are providing excellent contributions. They'll need their aging stars to be kept around 30 minutes per game if the team wants to be in good shape for a long playoff run. Steve Nash and Shaq are providing tremendously given their respective ages and Grant Hill is doing OK to start, but I think Matt Barnes, Leandro Barbosa, Raja Bell and Boris Diaw are going to win them a lot of games. Plus they have this kid, Amare, who is probably the most impressive offensive player west of Ohio.

5. Detroit Pistons
6. Utah Jazz

It pains me to put Utah at #6 and I’m sure they’ll make me regret it. They are the best passing team thus far into the season (24.1 assists per game; 6.8 assist differential) despite being without Deron Williams for 10 of their 12 games. Aside from Carlos Boozer (who, by the way, is opening up the season in MVP-form) the Jazz haven’t been a very good scoring team. I’m excited to see how their scoring improves when D-Williams returns.

SECOND TIER

7. Houston Rockets

Don’t fool yourself: the only Big Three in the NBA is in Boston. But if there is another (and it’s far too early to tell) then it lives in Houston. Ron Artest has shown flashes of brilliance, Yao has been Yao, and Tracy has shown flashes of... well, Tracy. It's tough to overlook the injuries - albeit minor, in some cases - already sustained by Houston's Big Three, and they can't be an elite team until they have a stretch of healthy performances from all 3 players.

8. Portland Trail Blazers

When they play at their highest level… I cry a little bit. LaMarcus Aldridge showed last year that he’s very capable of scoring big in the paint. Brandon Roy is playing on a level with Danny Granger and Joe Johnson that can only be looked down on by Dwyane Wade and Kobe Bryant. Greg Oden is the tenacious defender. So what if he can’t shoot? He’ll average 15 points, 10 rebounds, and 2.5 blocks on 55% FG and 65% FT. Mayo,

9. New Orleans Hornets

THIRD TIER

10. Denver Nuggets

The Billups-Iverson trade is still rocking my world. Who won in that deal? It’s too early to tell. It’s clear that Denver has looked like one of top 5 most dangerous teams since. It’s making me wonder if Allen Iverson is a good fit for any team looking to contend.

11. Orlando Magic
12. Toronto Raptors
13. Dallas Mavericks
14. Atlanta Hawks
15. San Antonio Spurs

If the season ended today, the Spurs would be the #8 seed in the Western Conference. They were 1-4 with Tony Parker, and have been 5-2 without. Was Tony Parkers’ 27.4 points-per-game weighing them down? Of course not! My point is that the Spurs are getting it done without Parker and Ginoboli. Manu has said that he expects to play tonight against Memphis. As of November 7^th, Tony Parker’s recuperation time is estimated to last 4 weeks. Say Parker returns for December 9^th at Dallas… the Spurs will have played 18 games. If they have a winning record when Parker returns, you could be looking at a Spurs team capable of winning the Southwest division and landing a #3 seed in the playoffs.

My guess is you’re thinking, “So what? The Spurs are 12 games in and at 6-6 are only back 2 games in the division.” I generally can’t find any report on the Spurs that shows my same optimistic outlook, so I feel somewhat compelled to give some reason. The fact is this: when Tony Parker, Manu Ginobili and Tim Duncan are all playing, and are as healthy as possible… the Spurs are the only other team in the same stratosphere as the Celtics and Lakers. They may even be better than that.

16. Philadelphia 76ers
17. Miami Heat

FOURTH TIER

18. Sacramento Kings
19. Chicago Bulls
20. Indiana Pacers
21. New York Knicks
22. Golden State Warriors

FIFTH TIER

23. Los Angeles Clippers

Unlike most Power Rankings, I’m not giving up on Chris Kaman, Al Thornton, Baron Davis, and Marcus Camby just yet.

24. Minnesota Timberwolves

Remember: these are Power Rankings, not Win Projections. A team that’s 0-10 can be better than a team that’s 4-6. It’s too early in the season for a team’s poor start to be so strongly indicative of a team’s final record.

Some people just don't understand Power Rankings...

Fox Sports (#28) said: “Yes, they're playing everyone close, but an eight-game losing streak is an eight-game losing streak. That matches Minny's longest skid last year.” Dumb

ESPN.com (#30) said: “Don't want to alarm a fan base still coping with KG winning a title in his first season away from 'Sota . . . but the previous team to lose eight straight after starting 1-0 was the 2003-04 Magic, who went from 1-0 to (gulp) 1-19.” I bet the Suns should be worried too. One time in NBA history, a team opened up 8-3, lost two straight games, and finished the season under .500! No one likes 'Sota, ESPN -- use one of the many good reasons not to.

The only one who seems to get it is NBA.com (#28): “The Wolves had three tough losses this week. They were right there in the fourth quarter of each, but lost at Golden State in overtime, to the Blazers by five and at Denver by six. Seven of their eight losses have come by six points or less. That's how you move up from No. 30 without winning.”

SIXTH TIER

25. Charlotte Bobcats
26. Milwaukee Bucks
27. Washington Wizards

Two All-Star players (Butler and Jamison), one win... What a shame.

28. Memphis Grizzles

Rudy Gay and O.J. Mayo are strong scorers. No team with Marc Gasol as their big man can be taken seriously, though.

ROCK BOTTOM

29. New Jersey Nets
30. Oklahoma City Thunder

Talk about an exciting season… Sure, Oklahoma will likely finish with the worst record in the NBA. I’d still pay $35 (plus service charge) to see Kevin Durant play from the balcony. There's a reason to see almost every team.

Greg Oden (Part One)

By Rob

ORIGINALLY POSTED NOVEMBER 20, 2008



I. Love. Greg. Oden.

Consider this part one of a two part post on Oden. (I'm keeping this short because Portland is playing right now and I don't want to miss him swat another shot)

Greg Oden’s first three full games have been excellent...

Averages: 65.2 FG%, 72.7 FT%, 15.3 PTS, 9.6 REB, 3 BLK, 1 STL, 1 AST, 2.3 TO, 4.6 PF

Stat Totals: 15-23 FG, 16-22 FT, 29 REB, 3 AST, 7 TO, 3 STL, 9 BLK, 14 PF, 46 PTS

As I post, his stat line reads:
17:27 minutes, 3-7 FG, 5-6 FT, 10 reb, 3 blk, 11 pt

5-6 FT makes me giggle a little. Man... He's going to be a very, very good player.